India to Have Skilled Labor Surplus of 245 Million Workers by 2030, Says Study

India will face skilled labor surplus of 245 million workers by 2030, according to a recent study on global talent crunch. The surplus will primarily be due to the vast supply of working age citizens in the country, the study conducted by organizational consulting firm Korn Ferry said.

India is the only country in the study expected to have a surplus, owing mainly to its vast supply of working-age citizens and government programs to boost workers’ skills.

“Industries where the talent surplus will be the most visible in India include the financial services with a surplus of 1.1 million, technology, media, telecommunications (TMT) at 1.3 million and manufacturing at 2.44 million of extra manpower in 12 years,” the study, titled “The Global Talent Crunch,” said.

Governments and organizations must make talent strategy a key priority and take steps now to educate, train, and upskill their existing workforces, it added.

“By 2030, we can expect a talent deficit of 85.2 million workers across the economies analyzed — greater than the current population of Germany. The shortfall of Level A, Highly skilled workers could equal 21 per cent of the highly skilled workforce of the 20 countries in our study,” the study said.

In the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors, India stood out as the only country expected to have a skilled-labor surplus — expected to reach 1.3 million workers by 2030, creating opportunities for the country to further develop its importance as a technology center. Barring India, all nations would be gripped by telecommunications talent deficit by 2030.

The United States, currently the world’s leading technology market, can expect to lose out on $162.25 billion by 2030 due to sector skills shortages. These talent deficits may imperil America’s status as the global tech center, the study said.

This global skills shortage could result in $8.452 trillion in unrealized annual revenue by 2030. “The top five financial centers in our study — the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France — could fail to generate $870.47 billion by 2030, with the United States accounting for half of this — equivalent to 1.5 per cent of the projected 2030 U.S. economy,” according to the report.

The study assessed the talent-supply gap in 20 developed and developing economies across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa and Asia Pacific. Japan, the world’s sixth biggest financial center, could fail to generate $113.62 billion in 2030, equivalent to more than 18 per cent of the sector’s potential value in 2030, it said.

“Global financial services players are already experiencing skilled-talent shortages and are set to face the greatest talent gap of any industry sector in the next decade. Financial services leaders need to act now or they will forfeit substantial growth opportunity,” Michael Franzino, president, Global Financial Services, Korn Ferry, said.