India Leads in Global Trade Growth, Says Study

The Global Trade Barometer index value for India for March 2018 was 84, as compared to 61 for China and United Kingdom.


India’s trade growth is the highest among seven countries that account for over 75 per cent of world trade, according to a study conducted by DHL and Accenture. The study assessed aggregated market data from air and containerized ocean freight from China, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States.

The global trade barometer index value for India was 84 in January, 86 in February and 84 in March this year, according to the DHL Global Trade Barometer. The index in March was 67 for the United States, 61 for China and  70 for Japan.

“India continues to show the highest index value of all seven countries for the overall trade predictions, while the United Kingdom, after a modest decline since January, scores the same level as China at the lower end of the country ranking,” the study said.

The global trade barometer index value for March was 61 for the United Kingdom, 64 for Germany and 69 for South Korea. The overall global trade barometer increased to 66 points in March from 64 points in January, according to the study.

“With an index value clearly above 50, the DHL Global Trade Barometer continues to signal solid positive growth for global trade within the next three months. Furthermore, the increase indicates that growth is gaining momentum,” the study added.

The study is based on the import and export data for a number of intermediate and early-cycle commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production, like brand labels for clothes, bumpers for cars or touch screens for mobile devices.

An index value above 50 indicates positive development, while that below 50 shows a decline in world trade. The outlook for global ocean trade improved to 63 points in March as compared to 60 points in January. “This growth is also driven by the United States and China, together with a strong increase in South Korea, offsetting a slightly reduced growth outlook for United Kingdom and German ocean trade,” the study said, adding that globally, the air trade outlook has dipped slightly and ocean trade has gained momentum.

Among the key findings of the study in the January quarter was that globally, industrial raw materials were the most important growth driver, followed by a trade in capital equipment and machinery parts as well as chemicals and products.

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