India is Fastest Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Says Harvard Report

Countries that have diversified their economies, such as India and Vietnam, will lead the way till 2026, the Harvard report said.


India tops the list of fastest growing economies in the world for the coming decade, according to a Harvard University report released on May 3. India, with an annual growth of 7.9 per cent, is ahead of China and the United States on the list, which projects China’s growth at 4.9 per cent annually till 2026, while the respective figures for the United States and France are 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.

The report puts Uganda on the second spot on the list of the fastest growing economies to 2026, with annual growth of 7.5 per cent, PTI reported.

Countries that have diversified their economies into more complex sectors, like India and Vietnam, will grow the fastest in the coming decade, the Centre for International Development at Harvard University, said.

“India tops the list as the fastest growing country for the coming decade, at 7.9 per cent annually, in the economic complexity growth projections. India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics,” the report stated.

India’s productive capabilities far exceed expectations for its current income level, it added, ranking India at No. 1 position on a criteria called Complexity Opportunity Index (COI) that looks into easy redeployment of existing knowhow into new complex products.

“India’s existing capabilities have not only diversified its exports, but also allow for easy redeployment into related products that depend on those capabilities, making further diversification relatively easy,” the report said.

The top ranking in COI means that India has many “unrealized opportunities” to diversify into related, high-value sectors that will drive productivity growth and job creation. “Up to now, that potential remains unrealized, however, as India’s complexity has not changed over the past decade. The rapid growth that is predicted is effectively capitalizing on previous gains in complexity,” the report added.

Southeast Asia remains dominant in the global growth landscape, driven by the diversification of economies into complex manufacturing, Ricardo Hausmann, director of CID, professor at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the leading researcher of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, said. Hausmann observed that the leading countries have shifted within the region, as Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are set to lead growth in the coming decade.

In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is moving eastward from West Africa, with Tanzania at the 4th spot and Kenya at the 10th position in the fastest growing economies globally to 2026.

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