Bigger India
Uncertain times await Arab World and Indian interests in 2018
India, with its historical relations with the Ottoman and Persian empires, Iraq and the Gulf besides Egypt, Morocco and other North African states, has navigated complexities of the Arab world in a rather smooth fashion.
Tensions among key players of West Asia, efforts to consolidate his power by Saudi Crown Prince and the US move to shift its Embassy to Jerusalem could be flash points that could push the world’s most complex region into further instability in 2018 that could have global impact from energy supplies to expatriates to spread of radicalism. India could be among those impacted as most of its hydrocarbon supplies are still sourced from West Asia and it has 7-8 million expatriates in six Gulf states seending back home billions of dollars.
While stability of Saudi Arabia was still being debated came US President Donald Trump’s decision to shift US embassy to Jerusalem impacting status quo of the region in a major way and pushing the region into deeper instability. This will not only see rise in anti-American protests and resentment among US allies in the Arab World but may also strengthen radical forces that could impact every continent. While stability in Riyadh is desired, it will be prudent if US reconsiders its decision on Jerusalem that will also prevent attacks on its closest ally Israel. Even Arab allies of Israel, Jordan and Egypt, may find it difficult to safeguard Israel. And Turkey, which has diplomatic ties with Israel, is already engaged in a verbal duel with Tel Aviv.