Aviation industry across the world is set to see a boom in 2036, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting the number of passengers to reach 7.8 billion that year, twice of the estimated 4 billion fliers last year. The Asia Pacific region will be the biggest driver of the demand, accounting for more than half of the new passengers in the next two decades, according to IATA’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.
As per the IATA projection, based on a 3.6 per cent average Compound Annual Growth Rate, destination pairs such as India-UAE will see an annual gain of 20.2 million passengers, followed by China-Thailand that will see annual gain of 19.1 million fliers. The third and fourth spots are taken by China-South Korea (17.7 million) and China-Singapore (15 million) routes.
Asian countries take most of the populated routes, with the United States, Canada and Mexico making a fleeting appearance in the Top 10 at the 4th spot with an annual passenger gain of 14.9 million passengers. The U.S.-Canada route comes at the 6th spot, with gain of 12.3 million passengers, while the China-U.S. route takes the 9th place with 11.0 million new passengers. The India-U.S route is projected to gain 10.5 million passengers per year.
India is also the third fastest growing market in terms of annual additional passengers, with 337 million new passengers taking the total to 478 million in 2036. China and the United States take the top two spots, with 921 million new passengers out of a total of 1.5 billion and 401 million new passengers out of a total of 1.1 billion, respectively. Rounding off the top five fastest growing market are Indonesia (235 million new passengers for a total of 355 million) and Turkey (119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million).
Many of the fastest-growing markets have a compound growth rate of more than 7.2 per cent per year.
The growing aviation market has its own challenges, Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO, pointed out. “Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge. The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency. Through partnerships within the industry and beyond, we are confident that sustainable solutions for continued growth can be found,” said de Juniac.
As per the IATA projection, the point at which China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market has moved two years closer since last year’s forecast to the year 2022. The United Kingdom will be surpassed by India in 2025 and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey will enter the Top 10 markets while France and Italy will slip to the 11th and 12th spots, respectively.