The
party of Abraham Lincoln may now get a second chance.
The
forced resignation of Trent Lott from his position as
Senate majority leader could potentially have as seismic
an effect on race and politics in the coming decades
as did the events of 1948 that he was seemingly eulogizing.
Lott found himself in the cross-hairs, disavowed both
by President George Bush and the Republican Party establishment,
for his comments at former Sen. Strom Thurmond’s 100th-birthday
celebrations in December: “I want to say this about
my state: when Strom Thurmond ran for President, we
voted for him. We’re proud of it. And if the rest of
the country had followed our lead, we wouldn’t have
had all these problems over all these years, either.”
Thurmond had run for president as a Dixiecrat, on a
segregation platform and a pledge that “all the laws
of Washington and all the bayonets of the Army cannot
force the Negro into our homes, our schools and churches.”
Thurmond was trounced in the race and later repudiated
his racist views. However, he won four Southern states
in the 1948 elections, a fact not lost on Republicans
who had until then been locked out of the Southern Democratic
stranglehold.
As the civil rights movement gained steam, successive
Republican leaders used overt and covert racist appeals
to lure disaffected and alienated Southern voters, culminating
in the total sweep of the South in 1972 by President
Nixon. In every presidential election since 1980, Republicans
have overwhelmingly prevailed in the South, sweeping
every Southern state in 1984, 1988 and 2000.
The fall of Lott, whose comments were neither out of
character for him, nor indeed his party, was precipitated
by the new political dynamics now in play. Republican
analysts have begun recognizing that the deepest and
widest partisan schism in American politics is race,
and as the minority population in the country swells,
the political cards Republicans hold could prove deadly.
In the last presidential elections, Whites voted for
Bush over Gore by 54% to 42%. By contrast, African-Americans
supported Gore over Bush by 90% to 9%. The partisan
polarization is no greater on any other issue or demographic
characteristic — not abortion, not gun ownership, not
income, not gender. Democrats are perceived as sympathetic
to minorities, who form their political base, and Dixiecrat-winking
Republicans are the home of White males.
The polarization has proven beneficial for Republicans
thus far, solidifying their hold on the South especially.
But now it poses risks. By the middle of this century,
projections are that Whites will no longer be a majority.
Indeed, a presidential advisor was recently quoted in
the Wall Street Journal as stating that Bush would be
defeated in 2004 if he captured the same proportion
of each racial group’s vote as he did in 2000.
The Republican establishment is fast recognizing that
it needs to enhance its appeal and grow among minority
groups for future electoral success and in George Bush,
who has a strong record with the Hispanic community
from his home state of Texas, they may have found a
potentially appealing messenger.
The crisis that Lott spawned for his party may yet turn
out to be an opportunity for the GOP to eschew its racially
divisive past and cultivate its appeal among minority
communities. Indeed, the GOP’s cultural and economic
agenda — on abortion, family values, faith, taxes, etc.
— has considerable resonance among many minority groups,
especially such affluent ones as the Indian Americans.
However, the GOP’s race-baiting past has precluded it
from making much headway among African Americans and
other minorities. Depending upon how they grab the opportunity
that Lott’s mistake provides, the party of Abraham Lincoln
may yet get a second chance.
